An Evaluative and Projective Model of Household Waste in Pekanbaru City: A System Dynamics Analysis for Landfill Capacity Estimation

Abstract

This study develops a system dynamics model to analyze household waste management and estimate landfill capacity in Pekanbaru, Indonesia. The modeling process begins with the construction of a causal loop diagram (CLD), followed by the development of a stock-and-flow diagram (SFD). "A 20-year simulation (2023–2043) was conducted to evaluate future trends in waste generation and landfill availability. Model validation using mean comparison and amplitude variation tests confirms that the model accurately reflects the actual system behavior. The simulation results indicate an exponential increase in household waste generation, leading to landfill capacity depletion by 2030 under baseline conditions. To address this issue, the study evaluates three policy scenarios: increasing the proportion of treated waste, expanding the landfill area, and implementing leachate treatment technology. The results demonstrate that improving waste treatment rates extends the operational lifespan of the landfill, whereas landfill expansion provides only a temporary solution. Among the evaluated scenarios, leachate treatment yields the most significant long-term impact by extending landfill availability beyond the 20-year simulation horizon. This study provides insights into the dynamic behavior of household waste management systems and highlights the importance of proactive policy interventions to ensure sustainable landfill capacity. The findings offer policy implications for urban waste management planning in Pekanbaru and other rapidly growing cities.